The post has been translated automatically. Original language: Russian
The Aral Sea.... There is no more sea here. There is Aralkum. The youngest desert in the world and the largest source of dust in Eurasia.
1960: the area of the Aral Sea is 68 thousand square kilometers.
Today: less than 10% of the water is left. There are 5.5 million hectares of salt, sand and pesticides on the bare bottom.
And this land is taking revenge.
WHAT EXACTLY IS FLYING US
According to UNEP and KazNIIEKO, every year the wind lifts from 75 to 100 million tons of dust from the dried-up bottom.
This is not ordinary sand. It is a concentrate from 60 years of intensive farming.
Ingredients: table salt and bitter salt, gypsum. There are also remnants of DDT, lindane and other pesticides that have been dumped into the Aral Sea since the 60s. Plus heavy metals: lead, cadmium, mercury.
On days of severe storms, the concentration of fine PM2.5 dust in Kyzylorda and Aralsk exceeds the norm by 15-40 times. Such dust passes through all the body's filters and settles in the lungs.
IMPACT CARD: REACHES ALMATY
The storms from the Aral Sea have 3 main corridors.
- The first one hits Kazakhstan: Kyzylorda — Turkestan — Shymkent — Taraz. The cloud reaches Almaty in 36-48 hours. In March 2024, the instruments recorded the Aral dust even in the metropolis.
- The second one goes south: Nukus — Urgench — Bukhara — Samarkand — Tashkent — Dushanbe.
- The third is to the west: through Atyrau and Aktau, dust flies across the Caspian Sea and goes to Russia.
In 2022, NASA satellites spotted a cloud from Aralkum over Georgia. 2500 kilometers from the epicenter.
PRICE IN MATTERS OF HEALTH AND ECONOMICS
The medicine of the Aral Sea region is sounding the alarm. In the Kyzylorda region, the incidence of respiratory diseases is 47% higher than in the central Kazakhstan region. Childhood asthma is 2.3 times more common. Oncology is 30% higher.
The economy is losing money at every turn. One strong storm cuts off up to 20% of the grain harvest in the fallout zone. Salt burns out the shoots. Dust breaks down machinery, clogs filters, stops construction sites and airports.
Experts estimate that the direct annual damage to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ranges from 200 to 400 million dollars. And this figure is growing.
WHY DID IT GET WORSE
There are three reasons. And they all reinforce each other.
- The first is the climate. In 30 years, the Aral Sea region has become 2.1 degrees hotter. Precipitation falls by 18% less. The soil cracks faster.
- The second is that the desert itself is growing. The crust of salt at the bottom collapses. New pockets of dust appear.
- The third is a human. Cattle grazing and the passage of machinery along the bottom finish off the last areas where vegetation was kept.
The result: if in the 1980s there were 4-6 major storms per year, now there are 12-18.
FIGHTING TECHNOLOGY: 4 LINES OF DEFENSE
The desert cannot be stopped. But you can tie her up and learn to live next to her.
Line one. "Green shield" from drones. The main task is to consolidate 1.1 million hectares of the seabed by 2030. It's not possible to do it manually.
Solution: drones. From a height of 50 meters, they "shoot" capsules with seeds of saxaul, cherkeza and tamarix into the ground. One drone covers 100 hectares per day.
The UNDP and IFAS project has already sown 270 thousand hectares. Survival rate is 35-45%. One hectare of adult saxaul traps up to 80 tons of dust per year.
Line two. Artificial intelligence and satellites. The task is to warn the city in 3 days. The system analyzes data from Sentinel and MODIS satellites, readings from 200 ground-based sensors, and runs everything through the WRF-Chem model. The neural network has been trained on 20 years of observations.
The pilot in Kyzylorda showed an accuracy of 87%. A warning arrives 72 hours in advance: "A storm is expected. AQI 300+. Children and the elderly are not allowed out." On alert days, emergency calls drop by 22%.
Line three. Engineering protection of cities. Wind shields with a height of 6 meters are being installed around Aralsk and Kazalinsk. They dampen wind speed by 60%. Immediately behind them, a "green belt" of fast-growing trees is planted. In 2 years, dust levels in Aralsk have dropped by 31%.
Line four. Human protection. According to the state program, HEPA filters are installed in schools and hospitals in the Aral Sea region. Parametric insurance was launched for farmers: the sensor detected a storm for more than 12 hours — the payment to the card came automatically, without papers.
HOW MUCH DOES INACTION COST?
A complete phytomelioration of 1.1 million hectares will cost 450-600 million dollars until 2030. Central Asia's annual losses from healthcare, soil degradation, and economic downtime are already $1.2 billion per year.
Investing in a shield is twice as cheap as paying for the consequences.
Based on the above, Aralkum is the first man—made desert in history that exports neither cotton nor fish. She exports the disease. We will not return the sea. But we can take back control of its bottom.
The technology is there. They have proven effective. They're paying off.One question remains. Will 5 years be enough for us to close the entire critical zone with a "green shield"?
If not, then in 10 years we won't be fighting dust. We will live in it.
Городские власти подвели итоги первого года работы системы "умных" светофоров. Пилотный проект на 95 перекрестках показал снижение заторов на 22% в часы пик.
Раньше светофоры работали по жесткому таймеру. 60 секунд зеленый, 40 секунд красный. Независимо от потока машин. Теперь фазы регулирует искусственный интеллект в режиме реального времени.
КАК ЭТО РАБОТАЕТ
Система "Сергек Traffic" подключена к городским камерам видеонаблюдения. Алгоритм каждую секунду анализирует количество транспорта на всех подходах к перекрестку.
Увидел затор на Достык — продлил зеленый на 12 секунд. Зафиксировал пустую улицу — сократил ожидание пешеходам до 10 секунд. Если едет скорая, ИИ дает ей "зеленый коридор".
"Машина не может предсказать пробку на 3 квартала вперед. А нейросеть может", — пояснили в Управлении городской мобильности.
ЦИФРЫ ГОВОРЯТ САМИ
По данным акимата, за 12 месяцев работы в центральной части города:
Было → Стало:
Средняя скорость в час пик: 18 км/ч → 22 км/ч
Время в пути: -18%
Количество аварий на перекрестках: -12%
Расход бензина в пробках: -15%
Экономический эффект для города оценили в 8.7 млрд тенге в год. Это сэкономленное время водителей и топливо. Один "умный" перекресток окупается за 4 месяца.
ЧТО ДАЛЬШЕ
До конца 2027 года в Алматы планируют перевести на ИИ-управление 400 перекрестков. Это 70% от общего числа светофоров в городе.
Опыт Алматы уже изучают в Астане и Шымкенте. Аналогичные системы с 2017 года работают в Барселоне и Таллине.
В акимате подчеркивают: строить новые развязки за сотни миллиардов — долго. А "дать мозги" существующим дорогам можно быстро и в 50 раз дешевле.
Водители первые две недели жаловались на непривычно длинный зеленый. Теперь привыкли. И приезжают домой на 6 минут раньше.
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