Let's dispense with complicated economic theories and excuses today. Instead, we will use a calculator and official data from the National Bank and the Bureau of Statistics to answer one question: why is the tenge constantly falling with a multi-year trade surplus?

International trade is based on a simple principle: the exchange of goods. If a country sells (exports) more than it buys (imports), then its goods and, consequently, its currency are in demand in the world. There is a trade surplus. The currency of such a country should strengthen.

If a country buys more than it sells, it runs a trade deficit. Its currency must weaken because it needs more foreign currency to buy imports than it receives from its exports.

This is not higher mathematics, it is fundamental logic.

Now let's look at Kazakhstan.

The statistics of Kazakhstan's foreign trade over the past 20 years (in billions of US dollars) are shown below. All data is taken from open sources of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the BNS of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Conclusions from the table:

1. Permanent surplus: For 20 years, Kazakhstan has almost always sold more than it bought. There was more currency coming into the country than going out.
2. Real annual average: This column is the key one. It shows how many times our exports exceed our imports. For example, in 2011 we earned almost 2 dollars for every 1 tenge spent on imports. Logically, our 1 tenge should have cost 1.94 dollars, but not 146 tenge per dollar.

If the currency doesn't go to pay for imports, where does it go? The answer is simple: it settles inside the country as a means of saving and speculation, and not as a tool for trading.

The law allowing commercial banks to freely trade currency through exchange offices and the policy of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan have created an ideal parasitic environment for this. Instead of serving the real sector, banks have created a parallel, speculative market.

Let us turn again to the figures of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (as of June 1, 2025):

• Deposits in the banking system: ~36 trillion tenge.
• Of these, deposits in foreign currency: ~9.9 trillion tenge (equivalent to ~18.6 billion US dollars).
• The level of dollarization of deposits: 27.5%.

Almost $19 billion earned by the country is just sitting in interest-bearing accounts. They do not work for the economy and do not strengthen the tenge. They create constant pressure on the exchange rate because they are a "dormant" demand for the dollar. Any rustle — and this money can be withdrawn, further bringing down the exchange rate. This is pure speculation, unrelated to trading.

The solution is obvious and technically feasible today.

1. Repeal the law on exchange offices in its current form. The purchase/sale of currency should be linked to real economic activity, not speculative.
2. Create a single digital platform for currency exchange. Does an entrepreneur want to pay for an import contract? He uploads it to the system. The system automatically performs conversion in real time at the exchange rate, which is formed solely from the balance of the same real trading operations for the day. Does a tourist need dollars for a trip? He provides a digital ticket, and the system sells him the currency on his card.

Such a system completely excludes intermediary banks from the speculative chain and returns exchange rate formation to its true basis - the trade balance.

The analysis of the figures presented above paints a disappointing but very clear picture. For decades, the real sector of Kazakhstan's economy has demonstrated strength, generating a stable trade surplus. At the same time, our national currency was moving in the opposite direction, weakening under the yoke of a system that encourages financial speculation rather than supporting real production.

One can endlessly criticize this system. You can continue to write letters to the authorities and receive formal replies, as has been the case with me for many years. But criticism without a suggestion is just shaking the air. Real change begins when words are followed by a willingness to act.

Therefore, as part of the IT and fintech community in Kazakhstan, we want to declare openly and responsibly: we are ready to create and implement a technological solution to this problem.

We have the knowledge, competencies and technologies to develop and implement the Unified Digital Currency Exchange Platform mentioned above. A system that will:

• Transparent: Every market participant will see that the exchange rate is formed on the basis of real trading operations.
• Fair: It will eliminate the possibility for intermediary banks to extract excess profits from speculation without creating value.
• Effective: It will directly connect buyers and sellers for real needs, whether it's paying for an import contract or buying a ticket for an overseas trip.

We, IP Shaman, are a team of developers, analysts and architects, ready to create a prototype and an implementation roadmap. We are ready to prove in practice that technology can serve not only as a tool for speculators, but also as a reliable foundation for national economic security.

There are no technical barriers to this. The only thing necessary to launch this project is the political will of the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

We are not asking for money. We ask you to give us the opportunity to apply our knowledge for the benefit of the country. We appeal to AstanaHub, the President and the Government: give the green light, and we will build a system that will return the tenge to power based on the real achievements of our economy, and not on the whims of financial players.

The future of the national currency is not a matter of faith or luck. It's a matter of digital technology and determination.

Are we ready for the exchange rate of 1tg / 1.25$, that's the question.